Why I, a Lifelong Democrat, Believe Biden Will Lose in 2024

By Gillian Thorp

While dining out at a popular restaurant in Silicon Valley recently, I overheard a conversation that stuck with me. A woman said to her companion, “I can’t believe I’m saying this as a Democrat, but I might vote for Trump this time.” Her friend nodded in agreement — not shocked, but reflective. This moment revealed a shifting sentiment that could reshape the upcoming election.

Having moved to the U.S. from South Africa as a teenager in 1986 and later becoming a citizen, I’ve always aligned with the Democratic Party. I was even involved in the Northern Nevada campaign for President Biden during the last election. Just a few years ago, I was at a small house gathering with Jill Biden and later delightfully sat with her at a dinner. But now, things feel different. There’s a growing reluctance among fellow Democrats about Biden’s rerun, with only 37% in favor according to a recent AP-NORC poll — a sharp drop from last year.

The author with First Lady Jill Biden

The following significant issues are weighing on voters’ minds and will likely lead to a Biden loss this November.

People Don’t Want War: Joe Biden’s administration faces more than just sagging poll numbers. The global scene has grown tense under his watch, with escalating conflicts in Israel and Ukraine and rising tensions with China and Taiwan. The White House seems overwhelmed, and public unease is growing. Liberal voices like Michael Moore worry that Biden’s foreign policies, especially his stance on Israel, will alienate young voters who are tired of endless conflicts. Moore recently stated, “Young people don’t want war. Why don’t they like war? Because they’re the ones usually sent to go and die in the war. And so no, they don’t support it, and they don’t support you [Biden]. And now they’re sick of you and what you’ve been doing. And you can’t see it.”

Emma West Rasmus, a Program Manager at the US Department of Justice and a steadfast Democrat for 33 years, recently wrote an opinion piece for The Hill. After returning from a trip to Palestine where she witnessed the severe humanitarian crisis, she declared a shift in her political allegiance, vowing to work to defeat Biden. She went on to say, “I will not vote for Biden or any Democrat. Maybe ever again.”

According to a recent Gallup poll, American favorability toward Israel and the Palestinian Authority is declining. “Fifty-eight percent of Americans, down from 68% last year, have a “very” or “mostly favorable” view of Israel. This is the lowest favorable rating for Israel in over two decades. At the same time, favorable opinions of the Palestinian Authority have dropped from 26% to 18%, the lowest since 2015.”

Young Black Americans Backing Trump

Credit BBC

Black Americans are Supporting Trump in Surprising Numbers: There’s an interesting uptick in Trump’s popularity among Black voters, contrary to past trends. A college friend of mine, a Black doctor in Texas, plans to vote for Trump, citing his family’s religious values and disappointment with Biden’s secular approach to events like the White House Easter Egg Hunt, where the president excluded religious-themed eggs. He found this action by the White House to be “deeply offensive.”

Meanwhile, other Black Americans have cited varied reasons for their political preferences toward Trump. Sheila Armstrong, a West Philadelphia local featured in The Philadelphia Inquirer, shares, “A lot [Black] people are seeing what he [Trump] is going through with the justice system, and they can relate. We’re still fighting for justice.”

And these are only two examples of countless Black people voicing their discontent with Biden and the Democratic party at large. An online or social media search will bring up multitudes of despondent voices. This growing discontent highlights a nuanced shift in political allegiances.

New York Post on Musk Visit to Border

Border Issues: The topic of border control is causing divisions across the country. While the core of the Democratic party calls for the protection of migrant rights, another segment is pushing for stricter measures to secure the border and block criminals from entering the U.S. Recent polls suggest that President Biden is facing notable challenges with immigration issues. This discord will likely affect voter support and turnout in the upcoming election. Reports from Monmouth University show that 60% view illegal immigration as a significant issue. At the same time, Gallup indicates that immigration has climbed to the top of the list of critical concerns for Americans. Adding to this concern, U.S. Border Chief Jason Owens, in a recent interview with CBS News, called our current border situation “a threat to national security.”

Dr. Umar Johnson, a Black American activist and psychologist, voices a concern that the Democratic Party’s outreach to immigrants and fast-tracking their voting rights is a strategy to compensate for reduced reliance on Black voters, and sidelining Black communities. He asserts, “They are giving these migrants resources that are meant for Black people. Taxpayers aren’t getting what they pay for. Still, folks who never paid taxes a day in their life nor whose ancestors built this country are being completely ignored.”

These statements by Black voices are becoming more common online, on social media, and throughout the country.

The Woke Divide: The concept of “wokeness” serves as a quiet yet powerful dividing line in American politics. Many hesitate to publicly criticize it, fearing being labeled with derogatory terms or facing social ostracism. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party’s move towards extreme left positions on such issues alienates some long-term supporters. This shift will lead voters to explore alternatives such as third-party voting or abstaining from voting altogether. This result will significantly decrease voter turnout for the Democrats and have severe consequences in future elections.

The latest case in point is Dwayne Johnson, “The Rock.” In a recent interview with Fox News, Johnson, who previously voted for Biden, said, “Am I going to do that again this year? That answer’s no. I realize going into this election, I will not do that.” He went on to say that he would keep his politics to himself and not vote for anyone. As this disconnect grows, Johnson is not alone in sitting on the sidelines in the upcoming election. A family member of mine who lives in California recently made a similar statement. She is not a fan of Trump but is upset about several issues I’ve outlined in this article and will not be voting in November.

Healthcare Concerns: The healthcare system remains a longstanding hot-button issue. Particularly contentious is the policy of providing health care to undocumented immigrants. A TikTok user known as “ThatOneArmedGuy” reacted strongly after seeing the last Democratic presidential candidates support government healthcare plans for undocumented immigrants during a debate. As someone who battled bone cancer twice and lost his insurance under Obamacare, he expressed frustration over a system that seems to prioritize newcomers over tax paying citizens. California’s decision to offer free Medi-Cal to undocumented immigrants at the start of the year was the last straw for him.

These challenges are just a few of the myriad issues facing the Democratic Party, along with concerns about President Biden’s age and vitality.

Hillary Clinton recently addressed these concerns, suggesting it’s time to “accept the reality that he is old.” While her intent may have been to shift focus away from his age and towards his capabilities, how this stance benefits Biden’s public image is questionable. If I were placing bets based on the current climate and these compounded issues, I’d wager that Biden doesn’t win the next election. His leadership is under intense scrutiny, and the combination of personal and political challenges may prove too significant to overcome in the upcoming vote.

Gillian Thorp is the award-winning author of The Colour of the Sun.